Which NFL teams must upgrade their quarterback units? Ranking all 32 teams by stability and need (2024)

Quarterback is the most impactful position in sports and the numbers bear that out. No team with a quarterback room ranked outside the top 13 in The Athletic’s NFL Roster Evaluation Model won a playoff game last season and no team with a QB room ranked outside the top seven reached conference championship weekend.

Which teams are most in need of an upgrade at quarterback and what could the market look like for those players?

This exercise is not a power ranking; it is meant to contextualize two things:

•A given team’s need to upgrade a particular position group compared to others on its own roster.

• A given team’s need to upgrade a particular position group compared to other teams around the league.
• How that need at the given position compares to other positions on its own roster.

Production, depth, contract stability and injury history were all considered and positions were weighted to account for differing levels of impact.

The table below ranks every team’s quarterback room from most stable and strong to least. The team priority level — or the emphasis a team is likely to place on upgrading the quarterback position in free agency and the draft compared to other positions on its roster — is ranked from 1-10, with 1 being lowest priority and 10 being highest.

The Athletic’s NFL writers and insiders on the status of each team’s quarterback room ahead of free agency and the 2023 draft.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Everything for the Chiefs starts with Patrick Mahomes, the league’s most talented quarterback. In five years, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to three Super Bowl appearances. The biggest question at the position is who will be Mahomes’ backup next season. Chad Henne, a 15-year veteran at age 37, announced his retirement on Feb. 13. The Chiefs are optimistic that Shane Buechele, who made the initial 53-man roster, could be someone who grows in the position. — Nate Taylor

2. Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is their unquestioned franchise quarterback, and even though he had some turnover trouble in 2022, the Bills believe they can win a Super Bowl with him in the not-so-distant future. The rest of the room is to be determined. The Bills liked Case Keenum’s fit into the quarterback room but are cap-strapped and might not be able to afford Keenum. Matt Barkley is a long-time favorite of Allen’s and was brought back for 2023 to help the synergy of the room. — Joe Buscaglia

3. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are about to give Joe Burrow a blank check and sign him to the largest contract in NFL history this offseason. Brandon Allen works well with Burrow and can win games in the short term if Burrow has to miss a couple of games. But Jake Browning outplayed Allen last preseason and could supplant him as the backup. — Jay Morrison

4. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. He is now eligible for a contract extension after completing his third season, and that should get done sometime this offseason. Brandon Staley hired Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator after moving on from Joe Lombardi. The hope is Moore will both elevate Herbert and improve the run game to take some responsibility off QB1’s shoulders. Chase Daniel has been Herbert’s backup for the past two seasons, largely because of his familiarity with Lombardi’s Sean Payton-influenced scheme. With Lombardi gone, Daniel is likely on his way out. The organization likes Easton Stick, a 2019 fifth-round pick. But he is a pending free agent, and Moore could wind up signing a backup who, like Daniel with Lombardi, is fluent in the scheme and can help ease the transition. — Daniel Popper

5. Green Bay Packers

How active the Packers will be in addressing the quarterback position is up in the air as everyone waits for the Aaron Rodgers situation to sort itself out. They might need a new backup quarterback regardless of what happens with Rodgers. Their starter will either be Rodgers or Jordan Love. If Rodgers starts, there’s a chance Love will request a trade and the Packers grant it. If Love starts, that means Rodgers isn’t on the team anymore. The Packers figure to target a young quarterback to back up Rodgers if Love leaves, maybe even another high draft pick, and a proven veteran backup to provide insurance behind Love. — Matt Schneidman

6. San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance and Brock Purdy are the only two under contract for next season, and they’re both unavailable to start the offseason due to injury. However, Lance expects to be fully cleared by the end of February while Purdy will be out at least six months after he tore his UCL in the NFC Championship Game. There’s certainly potential in this room, but it’s generally unproven and/or injured. Expect the 49ers to bring in veteran QB depth this offseason. — David Lombardi

7. (tie) Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are hopeful that Dak Prescott continues to be their franchise quarterback well into the future, but he needs to have a bounce-back season after posting a career-high 15 interceptions in only 12 games in 2022. Prescott went from having one of the worst games of his career in Dallas’ regular-season finale at Washington to having one of his greatest games in the wild-card round at Tampa Bay. However, he followed that up with one of the worst games of his career, throwing two interceptions in the Cowboys’ divisional-round loss at San Francisco. They would love to keep Cooper Rush as the backup, but it might be difficult to do as he’s about to become an unrestricted free agent. — Jon Machota

7. (tie) Philadelphia Eagles

For a team that likes to roster three quarterbacks, there are questions to address this offseason. Will the team sign Jalen Hurts to a long-term extension (probably, yes)? And how will they go about addressing the backup spot after doing so? Gardner Minshew is a pending free agent, so expect some shuffling. — Bo Wulf

9. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings ran it back with Kirk Cousins in an entirely new scheme. And while his overall numbers were down, his level of confidence and conviction seemed to climb under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Cousins may not create out of structure with the best of them, but his reliability and availability are both inarguable and valuable. Before the season, the Vikings acquired Nick Mullens as a trusty backup. Mullens is currently a free agent, and Cousins only has one year remaining on his current deal, both of which raise the question of whether or not Minnesota may seek to draft and develop a quarterback in the next year. — Alec Lewis

10. Detroit Lions

Jared Goff erased any lingering doubt about his ability to succeed in this league, turning in a Pro Bowl-caliber season in 2022. He’s QB1 for the Lions in 2023. Probably 2024, too, unless the Lions take a swing on a QB in the draft before then. However, as GM Brad Holmes said, it’s easier to get worse at quarterback than it is to get better. With two years remaining on his contract, Goff is the guy. As for his backup, the Lions could always consider bringing back Nate Sudfeld. — Colton Pouncy

11. New England Patriots

Mac Jones is still supposed to be the franchise quarterback going forward, but a downturn in 2022 made his status a bit murkier. With Matt Patricia running the offense, Jones’ stats decreased across the board. Now he faces a big Year 3 before the Patriots will have to decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option. Bailey Zappe remains the backup but showed some upside in his spot starts while Jones was out. — Chad Graff

12. Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is the future, not just of the position, but of this franchise. His breakout second season under head coach Doug Pederson makes that apparent. He still has two more seasons to go on his rookie contract, plus the fifth-year option, so although the Jaguars can start talking extensions after next year, he likely won’t really start affecting their cap for a few years. C.J. Beathard has proved plenty capable as a backup in the NFL, but he’ll need a new contract if Jacksonville wants to bring him back to continue working alongside Lawrence. — Jim Ayello

13. New York Giants

All signs point toward the Giants committing to Daniel Jones as their quarterback of the future. He earned a second contract by making impressive strides in his first season under coach Brian Daboll, but there are still questions about his ceiling. Jones is set to make over $30 million per year following a season with just 15 touchdown passes. The Giants need Jones to continue to develop to make their expected investment pay off. — Dan Duggan

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Kenny Pickett Era officially began at halftime in Week 4, when coach Mike Tomlin benched Mitch Trubisky and turned to the rookie. Pickett improved as the season went on, and it’s clear he will be the starter from Day 1 in 2023. The uncertainty comes behind him. Trubisky remains under contract for one more season. However, will he be satisfied with a backup job, or might he want a bigger role elsewhere? He also could be released for cap savings. Mason Ruldoph is likely gone. He waited his turn for years behind Ben Roethlisberger, and when it finally appeared he may have a shot, he was instead relegated to third string. — Mike DeFabo

15. (tie) Las Vegas Raiders

The team released Derek Carr in February, as he didn’t have the success in his first year in Josh McDaniels’ offense that everyone hoped for. Jarrett Stidham showed his arm talent and scrambling ability in his two starts, but also a penchant for taking risks that may not work out for him in the long run. He is a free agent and could be back as either a backup or a stop-gap starter if the Raiders draft a quarterback early and want to bring him along slowly. — Vic Tafur

15. (tie) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks don’t have a quarterback under contract for the 2023 season. Geno Smith is the top priority after putting together a Pro Bowl season in 2022, his first year as a starter since 2014. Smith, 32, can be designated a franchise player at a salary of $32.4 million for one season. Both parties would benefit from a long-term deal, though, and they’ve been open about their desires to do so. If not, Seattle could use the No. 5 pick to draft Smith’s successor. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

17. New Orleans Saints

Andy Dalton was solid (and even good) at times in 2022, finishing ninth in passer rating leaguewide. But Dalton also finished 20th in the league in Expected Points Added per dropback, via TruMedia. It seems apparent the Saints will move on from Jameis Winston since they never gave him a chance to play after injuries sidelined him in Week 2. Even though he’s not officially listed as a QB, Taysom Hill was the most exciting player to take snaps for New Orleans. Dalton is set to be a free agent and the Saints structured Winston’s deal such that they can escape it after this season. Regardless, the Saints need more consistent and potent play at the QB position. — Larry Holder

18. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams started the year with Matthew Stafford and ended it with Baker Mayfield — not a sentence they, or anyone, expected. Mayfield could be a good backup but wants to start somewhere and is a free agent. Stafford, meanwhile, passed his exit physical and is set to have his contract options picked up by the team for 2023. Where we could see significant movement is in the Rams’ likely overhaul of their backup quarterback position. — Jourdan Rodrigue

19. Miami Dolphins

Miami general manager Chris Grier said that Tua Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback, and head coach Mike McDaniel has also doubled down on Tagovailoa. Grier said he’s received assurances from the doctors working with Tagovailoa that he is not more prone to concussions than any other player, and Tagovailoa was cleared of the concussion protocol on Feb. 1. But no matter how much these guys profess their confidence in Tagovailoa, the reality is Tagovailoa missed four regular-season games in 2022 because of concussions, plus their playoff game. He was caught in the biggest concussion controversy in recent NFL memory, and that still might lead Miami to question his longevity at the position. Tagovailoa is under contract for one more season, but the Dolphins have to decide on his fifth-year option by May 1. — Kalyn Kahler

20. Atlanta Falcons

All of the Falcons’ rebuilding plans hinge on how they feel about rookie Desmond Ridder, the No. 74 pick in the 2022 draft. Ridder started the final four games of the season and showed gradual improvement. If the Falcons think he can eventually be the answer there, they can patch more of the other holes in the roster. Marcus Mariota, who stepped away from the team after being benched, probably will be cut for cap room. Logan Woodside probably ends up on the practice squad next season if Atlanta brings in a veteran backup. — Josh Kendall

21. Tennessee Titans

Wait and see across the board? That’s partially the result of a new GM, Ran Carthon, being on the scene. But any GM would look at this room and see a variety of outcomes. Ryan Tannehill is the odds-on favorite to return for the last year of his deal. Still, the Titans have to be considered a possibility to draft a quarterback — and at No. 11 they could move up if they believe one of the top guys is their future. Josh Dobbs made a strong case to be re-signed as the backup, but what would that mean for 2022 pick Malik Willis? Giving up on him so soon? Another year to learn? He did not help himself late in the season. — Joe Rexrode

22. Chicago Bears

Justin Fields is QB1 … well, we’re pretty sure. General manager Ryan Poles said he’d need to be “absolutely blown away” to take a quarterback No. 1 overall. Now it’s about surrounding Fields with a better offensive line and better receivers while getting Fields himself to elevate his game. The question is at the backup spot. Trevor Siemian has all the qualities of a No. 2, but with extra cap space, do the Bears aim for an upgrade? — Kevin Fishbain

23. (tie) Cleveland Browns

The Browns waited 11 games for Deshaun Watson and then only saw short stretches of good play from him. Much of the rust was understandable, but for the Browns to even be a playoff contender Watson has to be better in 2023 — much better than he was. Jacoby Brissett is headed to free agency and could land at least a temporary starting job. The Browns will need a veteran backup even though they seem to like Kellen Mond, who was claimed after the Vikings cut him last summer. — Zac Jackson

23. (tie) Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens insist that they plan on keeping Lamar Jackson, a pending free agent, but his contract demands, inconsistency as a passer and durability have to give them pause as he seeks a fully guaranteed deal. At his best, Jackson is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league. However, his play has fluctuated over the past two years and his late-season health issues have been troubling. Tyler Huntley, a pending restricted free agent, struggled in Jackson’s absence but does have some upside. — Jeff Zrebiec

25. Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray’s ACL injury suffered in December complicates things. First, it robbed the franchise QB of development time he sorely needed. Just as important, it jeopardizes his readiness for the start of the 2023 season. Arizona shut down Colt McCoy, a veteran backup, in the final week just for this reason, to make sure he stays healthy. Whether McCoy opens next season as QB1 likely depends on Murray’s recovery and how long he stays sidelined. Trace McSorley and David Blough got late-season auditions with Blough leap-frogging McSorley on the depth chart. — Doug Haller

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady announced his retirement on Feb. 1 and now the Buccaneers are officially in the market for a new starting quarterback. Backup Blaine Gabbert’s value was tied to his familiarity with Bruce Arians’ offense and staff changes likely change that dynamic. Kyle Trask more likely figures into the team’s longer-term plans, one way or another. — Mike Sando

27. Washington Commanders

Washington’s never-ending QB1 search, for now, is veering toward Sam Howell as the possible fix. At least, that is what the team told candidates it interviewed to be the new OC. The fifth-round pick has a big arm, mobility and swagger. He’s also made one career start. Ron Rivera needs a winning season — especially with potential new ownership — and could still target a proven veteran. Cash flow concerns and the possible franchise sale suggest looking at the Jacoby Brissett-Andy Dalton tier, or bringing back Taylor Heinicke rather than trading for a $25 million-plus QB. — Ben Standig

28. (tie) Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ situation at quarterback is the same as it’s been the last three years: They need one. While Sam Darnold was better in his second season in Carolina, the Panthers don’t view him as the long-term answer. Matt Corral, who missed his entire rookie season following Lisfranc surgery, is the only QB under contract for 2023. There’s a chance Darnold could return as a backup/bridge guy. The Panthers passed on quarterbacks in the top 10 in the past two drafts, but this feels like the year general manager Scott Fitterer will finally take one. — Joe Person

28. (tie) Denver Broncos

The Broncos’ playoff prospects in 2023 largely hinge on whether new coach Sean Payton can pull more consistent performances out of Russell Wilson following a career-worst year for Wilson in 2022. But part of improving at quarterback for Denver will also mean hitting the market for a more talented and experienced backup. — Nick Kosmider

30. New York Jets

The Jets had one of the worst quarterback situations in the league in 2022. Ultimately, Zach Wilson has been a massive disappointment. The Jets will probably bring him back in 2023, but not entirely by choice — they can’t cut him for financial reasons, and the trade value is too low to seriously consider. He won’t be the starter. Mike White has a future as a top-level backup but isn’t good enough to be a no-doubt starter at this point. The Jets will need to find an upgrade this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt

31. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have the No. 4 pick and are poised to finally draft a young QB. Matt Ryan is owed $35 million if he stays on the roster by March 17, and after a disastrous season, he’ll likely be cut. Nick Foles is owed just $3.6 million in 2023, but since he came to Indianapolis for Frank Reich and Reich was fired and is now Carolina’s head coach, Foles might be ready to move on. — James Boyd

32. Houston Texans

The Texans’ terrible offensive output in 2022 made clear the team doesn’t presently have its long-term answer at quarterback. It seems likely Houston will acquire a new starting QB in the draft with the No. 2 pick. Unless the Texans want to provide that young quarterback with a veteran backup who can be a mentor, Davis Mills, who has two years left on his rookie deal, would be a fine low-cost backup for a team that is unlikely to contend in 2023. Houston has already invested two seasons finding ways to utilize Jeff Driskel as a special teams player, tight end and change-of-pace mobile quarterback, so it’s possible he re-signs with the team to continue filling a unique role. — Aaron Reiss

(Top illustration: John Bradford /The Athletic;
photos: Cooper Neill and Al Bello / Getty Images)